After looking at the all-Wales picture, here’s where the main parties/groups in Bridgend are at the moment, their key strengths and weaknesses and what their expectations ought to be ahead of the local elections on May 5th.
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What’s going in their favour?
Plaid Cymru – They have one relatively “safe seat” in Llangynwyd. Luke Fletcher MS has also opened an office in the middle of Bridgend town centre when previous Plaid regional MSs have often given Bridgend a wide berth. They’ve been gradually making inroads into Pencoed too. So they’re slowly building foundations for a bigger presence even if that hasn’t materialised yet. They’ve already won two community council seats unopposed.
Liberal Democrats – Cheryl Green is one of the few councillors with name recognition. The Lib Dems have traditionally done well in the Laleston Community Council and the Bryntirion, Laleston and Merthyr Mawr ward – the increase in county council seats from 2 to 3 might boost Cheryl Green’s chances of keeping hers.
Greens – Given concerns about the climate emergency amongst young people and the lowering of the voting age in local elections to 16, they might unexpectedly do well off the back of that.
What’s going against them?
Plaid Cymru – They’re still miles away from RCT, NPT or even Vale of Glamorgan levels of organisation on the ground and that’s reflected in the big drop in the number of candidates at county and town/community council level. Tim Thomas has proven to be amongst the more locally proactive of the 2017 intake (despite his brief foray with Propel) and he’s perhaps been a bigger loss locally than Plaid would’ve anticipated. Labour (and possibly the Independents) will be confident they can push Plaid in Aberkenfig. Outside of the Llangynwyd ward, Plaid won’t be favourites anywhere.
Lib Dems – The disintegration of the party has hollowed out their ability to organise on the ground. Although there have been one or two bright spots – such as a better than expected performance in Bridgend in the 2019 UK general election – they barely have any presence at community council level and it would be a shock if any Lib Dem other than Cheryl Green won a seat. One of their previous parliamentary candidates, Jonathan Pratt, defecting to and standing for the Conservatives (and probably favourite to win Newton) is another blow.
Greens – See Plaid Cymru, but in an even weaker position. They did manage to pick up a few town/community council seats in 2017 but have seemingly decided not to put anyone up this year.
What would they be looking to achieve in the elections?
Llangynwyd ought to be safe for Plaid Cymru, but they’ll want to keep Aberkenfig and win maybe up to 4-5 town/community council seats (they already have two through uncontested elections).
As mentioned, the Lib Dems will be hoping Cheryl Green will retain her seat. They’ll also be hoping to maintain their seats on Laleston Community Council where they’ve done well in the past.
If the Greens manage to win a county council seat it would be a near miracle.
