After looking at the all-Wales picture, here’s where the main parties/groups in Bridgend are at the moment, their key strengths and weaknesses and what their expectations ought to be ahead of the local elections on May 5th.
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What’s going in their favour?
They still have sizable core support in the south of the county they can tap into. The Conservatives remain the “default”/instinctive opposition to Labour, meaning they’ll probably be the party those voting “against” Labour will turn to – though Independents may have overtaken them there given they’ve been far more proactive and have used their position on town and community councils to great effect.
The Tories have put up far more candidates than I was expecting at both BCBC and town/community council level. Even if quite a few of these are paper candidates (candidates standing with no real expectation of getting elected), it’s a show of strength and something that’s been repeated across the country.
As things stand it looks like they could retain quite a few of their town/community council seats and possibly make some gains at county level in Porthcawl.
What’s going against them?
The Tories won 11 county council seats in 2017.
Since then they lost a few of their more capable members early into the term, some of whom have gone on to thrive outside it – Alex Williams and Carolyn Webster (who’s standing down) being two examples of note. Those who remained in the Tory group have struggled to make any impact. One or two have just come across as outright lazy based on their lack of activity and poor attendance rates, whether that’s intentionally or unintentionally.
Two sitting councillors – Tom Giffard and Altaf Hussain – going on to stand (and win regional list seats) in the Senedd election in 2021 seemed a bit presumptuous. It’s meant both of them have had to spend the last year trying to do two paid elected roles and I don’t think that arrangement worked for either of them as they seemed half-in, half-out.
For all the perceived unpopularity of the Labour administration in Bridgend (and possibly the Welsh Government too), I doubt there’s much love for the UK Government either. There was an opportunity for the Tories to build something in Bridgend since 2017 and the 2019 UK election, but they’ve blown it because of some poor candidate selections and terrible PR.
What would they be looking to achieve in the elections?
Realistically, winning 5/6 seats at county level and holding on to community council seats in places like Brackla would be decent enough. If they can get anything close to double figures that would count as a very good result.
It would mean retaining at least two of their Brackla (county council) seats, at least one seat in Oldcastle, a seat in the new Bridgend Central ward and Penyfai. As mentioned, it looks likely they may be on course to gain at least one county council seat in Porthcawl too.
They’re on course to gain seats at community council level too due to the large number of candidates standing – so there may be an unexpected success here or there.
