After looking at the all-Wales picture, here’s where the main parties/groups in Bridgend are at the moment, their key strengths and weaknesses and what their expectations ought to be ahead of the local elections on May 5th.
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What’s going in their favour?
They’re the only realistic challenger to Labour in terms of securing the necessary numbers to lead the authority. They haven’t been treated with the appropriate level of respect their electoral performances in the county have warranted over the last few years.
The Independents are a fairly broad church, counting amongst their numbers ex-members from all of the main political parties as well as long-standing non-affiliated Independents. They don’t have to toe a particular party line and therefore have the flexibility to champion their respective communities. That’s probably their trump card as they’ve made their presence known in-between elections, when for most of us the only time you see or hear party candidates or councillors is in the few weeks before an election.
At town and community council level, there are examples of well-run Independent-led or majority administrations which have – in some cases – delivered meaningful local projects. The Independents do seem to take the town and community councils a bit more seriously than the mainstream parties do (that doesn’t mean all party-affiliated town/community councillors take it less seriously). This is demonstrated by the fact that the Independents are currently dominating the nominations at that level and have already picked up a large number of uncontested seats (49 by my count).
What’s going against them?
There’s no single independent group and they’ll all have their own priorities locally and county-wide which is already resulting in a slightly disjointed campaign.
At the very least you have the Bridgend County Independents-backed candidates, the Llynfi Independents, the Porthcawl Independents (possibly multiple groups now) and unaffiliated “Independent Independents”. Do we know what we’re getting with them?
Also, while they’ve demonstrated that they take issues at town/community council level seriously, there are very few details on what they propose for the big-ticket county-wide services. Campaigning on local issues is fine, but running a county council – or even presenting a united vision in opposition – will be more difficult. It’s far easier to complain about something not being done than to come up with a plan to do something about it and the Independents have been lacking there when Labour has presented them with open goals on multiple occasions.
There have been times where Independents come across as being too easy to wind up. Although you could argue this is a sign that they care – knowing full well they’re fighting a “David vs Goliath” battle against parties and groups with more resources – it also comes across as self-righteous, usually accompanied by a lengthy rant on one of the Facebook groups ending with “X must resign”. What are they going to be like if they faced criticism whilst in power?
While they’re keen to point out changes to council tax over the last few years, some Independent-run town and community councils have set amongst the highest precepts over the previous term (likewise it’s worth adding that other Independent-majority town/community councils have cut them or kept them low). Against, it hints at not knowing what we’re going to get from them.
What would they be looking to achieve in the elections?
It’s clear they want to form an alternative administration to Labour, but that could prove difficult and they’ll have to overcome significant electoral obstacles in the north of the county in particular to get close to a majority. The only way they could potentially lead a council is in a coalition of some kind.
In wards where they have to win seats to get anywhere near becoming the largest group (Bridgend Central, St Bride’s Minor & Ynysawdre, Oldcastle, Cefn Glas), they may find the Labour or Conservative incumbents hard to shift. Labour will likely be pushing hard to regain a foothold in Porthcawl and Maesteg too – which may threaten some Independent-held seats.
Independents usually enjoy more success at town and community council level and you would expect them to want to finish top (they narrowly missed out to Labour in 2017). Brackla has proven to be a tough nut to crack for Independents to date. Also, things may be looking wobbly for Independents on Porthcawl Town Council following concerns over how it’s been managed and some infighting during the second half of the previous term.
