After looking at the all-Wales picture, here’s where the main parties/groups in Bridgend are at the moment, their key strengths and weaknesses and what their expectations ought to be ahead of the local elections on May 5th.
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What’s going in their favour?
Labour’s biggest strength is the incumbency factor – the fact they’ve been in charge for most of the post-1996 period. We know what we’re going to get from them even if many will argue that what we get isn’t exactly impressive. Bridgend has only had a loosely cobbled together non-Labour-led administration once (between 2004-2008). Llynfi valley aside, Labour normally has a large number of seats north of the M4 sewn up at each election.
Labour stands to benefit from some of the ward boundary changes. There are several new wards where Labour could – on a very good night – get a clean sweep (St. Bride’s Minor & Ynysawdre, Cefn Glas, Pencoed & Penprysg; Pyle, Kenfig Hill & Cefn Cribwr; Garw Valley). They’re also likely to win all three seats in the Ogmore Valley. So with very little effort they could potentially win 15-17 seats in that handful of wards, putting them well on the way to being the largest party or even securing a majority.
Even in some of the new single-member wards (i.e. those in Brackla), it suits Labour to stand with a single candidate than see the vote spread across four seats – which is probably why the Tories did so well in Brackla in 2017.
As a party rather than a group of individual candidates, they’ll find it easier to coordinate with each other and be on the same page. Despite various internal disputes and fallings out over the last few years, by and large Labour are relatively well-disciplined.
Labour could also be in the best position to enjoy a bounce from national and UK-level issues given the performance of Labour at last year’s Senedd elections. Yes, these elections are about Bridgend Council and its performance, but when Labour asks their core voters to “send a message to the Tories” they usually do.
What’s going against them?
There are very few things you can point to in Bridgend over the last five years or more and say, “Labour played a blinder on that, well done! We’re really lucky to have such an enthusiastic and competent council that delivers!” It’s been a very uninspiring term where it often seemed as through despite being sent many electoral warnings, Labour were going through the motions and could barely be bothered to put in any serious effort outside of election campaigns.
Some problems going back more than ten years never seem to be addressed; how many times are we going to be arguing over the future of Bridgend town centre and Porthcawl regeneration?
Cabinet Members often come across – outside of social media – as spokespeople for officers, rarely challenging anything or coming up with original ideas. Similarly, if we lost every single Labour backbencher (apart from a very small number of exceptions) we probably wouldn’t notice. The local party lacks the dynamism you see in other Labour-run local authorities such as Swansea, Rhondda Cynon Taf and even Cardiff (lol). Regardless of how well or badly Labour do in the election, the time’s right for a leadership change and a review of how the council is run.
There are also signs that they may have struggled to find people to stand for them as they’re not running a full slate county-wide and have already lost a large number of community councillors because nobody came forward. They’re still the main political force in Bridgend but they’re a long way from what they used to be.
What would they be looking to achieve in the elections?
They’ll want to retain control of the county borough council (obviously) – whether as a majority or minority administration. They should be relatively confident of finishing as the largest group and I don’t expect them to do as badly as the Independents might hope.
My own estimates have Labour winning at least 27 seats if they have a good night (they need 26 for majority control) and maybe as few as 17-18 if everything goes wrong. Around 23 seats ought be enough for them to continue as a minority administration.
They’ll want to finish with more seats than the Independents across both the county and town/community councils, but the latter looks more challenging. They would presumably want to regain a foothold in the Porthcawl and Maesteg (at county and town/community council level) and retain majority numbers on the town/community councils where they already have them – particularly Brackla.
