Following my preview of the Bridgend constituency, here’s a look at how things stand in Ogmore – which includes Pencoed, the Sarn/Tondu area, Maesteg & Llynfi valley, the Garw and Ogmore valleys, as well as the Gilfach Goch, Llanharan/Brynna and Llanharry areas in Rhondda Cynon Taf.
Key Local Issues
- The relatively high level of Covid-19 cases in the Maesteg area throughout the pandemic; although things have calmed down, it needs an explanation in order to prepare for future pandemics.
- The future of the Ewenny Road/former Revlon site in Maesteg.
- Llanharan bypass and problems caused by the Pencoed level crossing.
- Ongoing fallout from the home insulation scandal in Caerau.
- Bus services in the Ogmore and Garw valleys (and the future viability of such services).
- Over-development (and associated traffic and public service problems) in and around Tondu.
- Long-standing high levels of deprivation and low levels of employment in parts of the constituency.
The Candidates
Labour
The incumbent former MP-turned-MS, Huw Irranca-Davies will be standing again for Labour and from the outset is the clear favourite….and that’s an understatement.
It’s a bit disappointing to be able to say with some certainty who will win this far out, but that’s the nature of first-past-the-post. Ogmore is one of Labour’s safest seats. Anything less than a 30% winning margin for Huw Irranca-Davies would qualify as a poor showing.
That doesn’t mean it’ll be smooth sailing. Ogmore Labour has taken a hit with the Caerau Arbed scandal, the recent departure of Cllr. Rod Shaw (Ind, Pontycymer) from the Labour group on Bridgend Council and Independents biting at their heels and taking a big chunk out of their support in the Maesteg area.
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru selected party staffer/economics researcher and Pencoed town councillor, Cllr. Luke Fletcher, who’s highly regarded by the party top brass. If – as expected – he falls short in Ogmore he stands a chance of being elected on the South Wales West regional list (he’s currently in second place on the Plaid list).
Plaid Cymru have finished in second place at every Senedd election in Ogmore held to date and you would expect them to be odds-on to do that again. If they can break through the 20% of the vote barrier that would count as a decent result; 25%+ would be very good (and the last time they did that in Ogmore was in 1999).
As is typical for Plaid Cymru, they haven’t made things easy for themselves due to a poorly organised regional list selection and internal disputes, leading nicely into….
Propel
One of the few Plaid Cymru stalwarts in Bridgend county, Cllr. Tim Thomas (Propel, Ynysawdre), was suspended last year for undisclosed reasons and resigned from Plaid Cymru, joining Neil McEvoy’s Propel party/limited company. He’s also top of Propel’s South Wales West regional list.
Cllr. Roz Stirman (Ind, Llangeinor) followed Tim Thomas out of Plaid Cymru not long afterwards, leaving a little over a year after joining – which is a huge embarrassment. They’ve also lost a few community councillors, most notably former Bridgend parliamentary candidate, Cllr. Rhys Watkins.
Outside of Cardiff West, this could be a contest you might expect Propel to do relatively well in. Since being elected as a councillor for the first time in 2017, Tim Thomas has built up a reasonable local profile for himself and comes across as being fairly hard-working. A “relatively good” performance would be a retained deposit.
Conservatives & Others
You can’t rule out the Conservatives, via Nathan Adams, challenging for second place in Ogmore if the UKIP vote from 2016 breaks their way, but the Tories have usually done better in Westminster elections in the constituency than Senedd ones.
The Lib Dems, represented by Cameron Shippam, have lost their deposit in the previous two Senedd elections and you would expect a similar outcome this time around; anything higher than 5% of the vote would be good.
Glenda Davies – who previously stood for UKIP in the constituency – has been selected to run for Reform UK. Ogmore is also one of the constituencies where Abolish the Welsh Assembly are running a candidate; some of that UKIP vote will likely break to both of them as well.
