While the Bridgend and Ogmore constituencies split the northern half of Bridgend county (Ogmore) from the southern half (Bridgend), initial proposals from the Boundary Commission for Wales – officially published today – could see Bridgend split east-west.
The proposals are part of moves to cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32.
The new Aberafan Porthcawl constituency will include the western portion of Bridgend town (Cefn Glas, Broadlands, Bryntirion, Laleston etc.), Merthyr Mawr, Porthcawl and the Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cornelly area. These areas would be combined with the current Aberavon constituency (that includes Port Talbot, Baglan, Briton Ferry, Margam and the Afan Valley).
The second proposed constituency, Bridgend, will include Maesteg & the Llynfi valley, the Ogmore and Garw valleys, the Sarn/Tondu/Bryncethin area, Cefn Cribwr, Penyfai, Pencoed, Coychurch and most of Bridgend town itself (the current Morfa, Newcastle, Oldcastle, Pendre, Litchard, Coity and Brackla wards).
As the proposals are based on council wards, they throw up some awkward boundaries at street level. For example, some houses on St. Davids Road in Cefn Glas will seemingly be in a separate constituency to the opposite side of the street. Elsewhere, Island Farm Road – directly south of Bridgend town centre – will be in the Aberafan Porthcawl constituency because it lies within the current Bryntirion, Laleston & Merthyr Mawr ward.
Parts of Rhondda Cynon Taf that are currently within the Ogmore constituency (Gilfach Goch, Brynna, Llanharan, Llanharry etc.) are set to move to an expanded Rhondda seat.
Politically, these proposals are very good news for Labour – a dream outcome even.
Aberavon is one of Labour’s safest seats. Even if the Conservatives manage to max-out their vote in the Porthcawl area and western Bridgend (town) they would find it very hard to close the gap.
Similarly, the new Bridgend seat includes most of Labour’s very safe Ogmore constituency.
The only Conservative-leaning parts are some of the Bridgend suburbs like Litchard, Penyfai, Oldcastle and Brackla. While the Bridgend town wards will have the bulk of the population in the proposed constituency, there are enough Labour votes there – on top of the big vote north of the M4 – for them to win and hold onto the seat for a long time. Jamie Wallis is likely to be a one-term wonder as things stand.
The proposals are still subject to consultation – all of the details are available here. The consultation closes on 3rd November 2021.
There are no plans to change the Senedd constituency boundaries as of yet, while new council ward boundaries – reducing the number of councillors in Bridgend to 51 from 54 – are set to be used in next year’s local elections.
