As you probably already know by now, Labour has narrowly secured a majority on Bridgend County Borough Council in this week’s local elections.
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Labour
- Largest share of the vote: Rhys Goode (Nantymoel), 83.1% – Elected.
- Most votes for an individual candidate: Huw David (Pyle, Kenfig Hill & Cefn Cribwr), 1,452 – Elected, 1st place.
- Most critical wins: Winning Pen-y-fai was essential to make up for possible losses elsewhere. Winning both seats in Porthcawl East Central. Winning all 5 seats in Brackla and Coychurch was essential to get Labour over the line for a majority.
- Surprise losses: Defeats for two former Cabinet members, Charles Smith (standing in Cefn Glas) and Dhanisha Patel (standing in Ogmore Vale). Given the focus on Aberkenfig (visits by the First Minister etc.), Labour under-performed there as well as St. Bride’s Minor & Ynysawdre and Bridgend Central.
After losing overall control of Bridgend Council in 2017, Labour squeaked over the line to secure a majority of 2 and retake control.
As the results were coming out, at points it looked as though Labour would fall short until it became clear that they comfortably won all the new wards in Brackla and Coychurch seats following a collapse in the Conservative vote.
Overall, Labour performed stronger in the valleys/north of the M4. Labour weren’t quite able to see off the challenge from the Llynfi Independents but came close to overturning the 2017 result in Maesteg East and taking both seats from the Independents – falling short by just a single vote.
There were, nonetheless, some good results in the south too – most notably securing county councillors in Porthcawl for the first time since 2008.
Other strong (but not totally unexpected) results include clean sweeps in the new Garw Valley ward and the new Pyle, Kenfig Hill & Cefn Cribwr ward, regaining Pen-y-fai from the Conservatives and Stuart Baldwin finishing second in Bridgend Central despite a strong challenge from Independents.
Despite the victory, Labour should be concerned about their performances in some wards – particularly in and around Bridgend itself (Bridgend Central, Cefn Glas, Coity Higher, Oldcastle, Bryntirion, Laleston & Merthyr Mawr) as well as the so-called “Valleys Gateway” (Aberkenfig and the new St. Bride’s Minor & Ynysawdre ward).
The result presents Labour with some problems. Their “leadership pool” has been reduced following the loss of senior councillors. There are no obvious candidates to fill the vacancies left by Charles Smith and Dhanisha Patel and while Huw David is likely to remain Labour group leader, the party should be asking themselves as to whether the leadership needs a shake up and fresh start.
Additionally, they’re also likely to face much stronger and more vocal opposition than they did in the last term. For the last five years, the Bridgend County Independents group have been holding the council to account fairly aggressively but haven’t been able to do much because they’ve been looking in from the outside. That’s no longer the case. They’re going to be in the chamber (or virtual chamber). They’re going to be (hopefully) asking uncomfortable questions.
The row between Labour, council officers and the opposition at the end of the term over the budget did cut through audience-wise and you can probably expect far more of those kinds of clashes in the next term.
Independents
- Largest share of the vote: Ross Penhale-Thomas (Maesteg West). 62.8% – Elected.
- Most votes for an individual candidate: Alex Williams (Pencoed & Penprysg), 2,139 – Elected, 1st place.
- Most critical wins: Winning all three seats in Coity Higher, retaining Nottage, winning two seats in Bridgend Central, Oldcastle as well as Bryntirion, Laleston & Merthyr Mawr and gaining Ogmore Vale from Labour as well as a seat in Cefn Glas.
- Surprise losses: Tom Beedle (standing in Maesteg East) and they came very close to losing both seats in the ward.
While a lot of the focus has, quite rightly, been on Labour taking control of the council, the performance of the Independents hasn’t got the attention it deserves. It was, in some respects, as good as if not better than Labour.
The rough calculation (i.e. only counting the best-performing candidate from each group/party in multi-member wards) suggests that Independents may have slightly outperformed Labour in terms of vote share across the county as a whole (it works out as something like 39.5% to Labour’s 38%).
They’ll be kicking themselves that they didn’t find anyone to run in Nantymoel, convinced more local candidates to stand in Garw Valley and find second candidates to run in Pencoed & Penprysg and Maesteg West (who probably would’ve won). An extra push here and there and they could’ve finished on top.
Despite the loss in Porthcawl East Central, the Independents in Porthcawl performed well and Norah Clarke retained her Nottage seat despite a strong challenge from the Conservatives and other Independents.
After long dominating Bridgend Town Council, Independents had sought a breakthrough in Bridgend town at county level and did so emphatically, winning 4 of the available 5 seats across Bridgend Central and Oldcastle (humiliating the Conservatives in the case of the latter). I thought a clean sweep in Coity Higher was do-able yet unlikely – but they pulled it off.
Bridgend is now an Independent-leaning town with one exception: Brackla. Brackla has and continues to be hard ground for Independents. Labour and Conservatives know how critical it is to UK and Senedd elections due to the large electorate, so are keen to focus resources and manpower there that the Independents just don’t have at this time.
The results in Brackla weren’t bad and it seems as though Lisa Lewis (Brackla West) came closest to winning a seat, but there was too much ground to make up.
Going forward, the biggest issue the Independents face is the lack of a single united vision or policy platform. The early chatter is that there could be at least two Independent opposition groups formed and there’ll be some Independent councillors who would prefer to be….independent.
If they can continue to use their strong position at town/community council level to improve their communities, they could be a highly effective opposition – showing glimpses of that in the previous term.
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Conservatives
- Largest share of the vote: Jeffrey Perrin (standing in Rest Bay), 46.0% – Not Elected.
- Most votes for an individual candidate: John Butcher (standing in Pencoed & Penprysg), 706 – Not Elected, 5th place.
- Most critical wins: None. The only seat they retained has been in Conservative hands since BCBC was founded.
- Surprise losses: To be honest, none – though it seems they lost a seat in Brackla East & Coychurch Lower via a coin toss/drawing of lots because a Tory and Labour candidate finished on the same number of votes. You would’ve expected them to have finished closer in Oldcastle and Pen-y-fai as well.
Oof, where do you start with this one?
I should have used a different scale on the graphic key above to give you a better idea of how badly the Tories did. They put up scores of paper candidates and most of them made no impact whatsoever.
They came close in a few wards. Rebekah Fudge (Brackla East & Coychurch) lost on a tiebreaker. Robert Lee was only 20 votes away from Norah Clarke in Nottage. They also had second-place finishes in Brackla East Central and Brackla West Central.
Other than that, it mirrored what happened in the rest of the county.
You’ll probably all have your own theories as to how and why it happened – whether it’s the unpopularity of the UK Government, “Partygate”, cost of living, Jamie Wallis.
Maybe though it’s just because many of the 2017 intake were crap councillors.
The good ones – Alex Williams, Ken Watts, Carolyn Webster etc. – left fairly early on or were effectively forced out. Altaf Hussain (formerly Pen-y-fai) seems to have been well regarded and one of the more active remaining Tory councillors but for whatever reason decided to run for the Senedd. Matthew Voisey (formerly Oldcastle) made a number of solid contributions in council meetings from what I’ve seen and paid back some of his allowance entitlements but his attendance rate was awful.
When I did * that * post on councillor executive, pay, attendance, referrals etc. I was genuinely shocked at how little the Tory councillors did.
The Conservatives like to lecture the rest of us about how lazy we are and that we need to work harder because there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Yet some of their councillors have attendance rates that would count as truancy in school. Many didn’t do much in the way of referrals/casework either. How a councillor representing a ward with 12,000 people in it can manage to submit no referrals for two years is beyond me.
It seems as though many like the prestige of being a councillor (and were perhaps talked into running in 2017 as paper candidates yet were unexpectedly elected) but weren’t prepared for the commitments that come with it.
I don’t think you’re going to be seeing much blue in Bridgend for a long time. Based on what’s happened (or not happened) over the last five years we won’t be any worse off for that.
Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems & Greens
- Largest share of the vote: Ellie Richards (Plaid Cymru, Aberkenfig), 54.3% – Elected.
- Most votes for an individual candidate: Leanne Lewis (Plaid Cymru, standing in Pencoed & Penprysg), 638 – Not Elected, 6th place.
- Most critical wins: Retaining Aberkenfig comfortably after a strong push by Labour.
- Surprise losses: Former BCBC Leader, Cheryl Green (Lib Dem), losing her seat in Bryntirion, Laleston & Merthyr Mawr – and it not even being close, finishing in 8th place.
On the whole the results for the parties listed above weren’t that great, though Plaid Cymru come out of it better than the others.
Plaid retained Llangynwyd comfortably. They also got a respectable 16.3% of the vote in Pen-y-fai and 13.9% in Pencoed & Penprysg – coming close to the Tories in both.
Ellie Richards retaining Aberkenfig for Plaid Cymru is a result that isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Firstly, the previous councillor, James Radcliffe, didn’t seem that active and there was always a risk the vote would leach away to other parties and groups. Secondly, Labour clearly eyed it up as a target as it’s one of the wards selected for a personal visit by Mark Drakeford. So keeping hold of it is a big achievement.
