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The results of the Bridgend and Ogmore Senedd election results aren’t expected until later this afternoon. The page will be updated once those results come in.
There’ll be coverage of the national and Police & Crime Commissioner results at State of Wales. I expect to be able to have a national Senedd results post by tomorrow afternoon at the latest (8th May), while the Police & Crime Commissioner results are expected either Sunday (9th May) or Monday (10th May).
One election that was counted immediately (presumably due to the low number of ballots) was the by-election for the county council vacancy in Nantymoel. Here’s the result:
You can’t read too much into it. The Independent vote did take a noticeable hit (though only two candidates stood in 2017) but Nantymoel has a long history of voting Independent and Mary Hughes is well-known locally by all accounts. Independent candidates are usually judged on their own merits rather than what others may or may not have done – which is an advantage.
Labour will perhaps be disappointed they couldn’t make up the necessary ground given the circumstances the by-election was held in. It also means they haven’t been able to gain a seat back after Cllr. Rod Shaw (Ind, Pontycymer) left the group. I suppose the positive is that they did increase their share of the vote, however marginal.
That’s a strong showing for Labour.
Given the shock of losing the Westminster seat in 2019 – and the loss of an incumbent who was one of the senior figures in Welsh politics – to only see a fairly marginal swing towards the Conservatives is a job well done.
Why? Labour got their vote out where it counted. They have resources and organisation on the ground which the other parties simply don’t have and given the kick up the arse they received in 2019 they knew they had to take it seriously this time.
The Tory campaign was lacking in energy and focus compared to 2019 and the last-minute change of candidate won’t have helped. They’re likely to do well on the South Wales West regional list as a result, though. Second place was expected but it was there for the taking with a proper campaign. The good news is their vote held up relatively well, which suggests those parts of the constituency which have voted Tory in local elections will remain blue.
It’s a decent showing for Plaid Cymru and one of their better Senedd results in Bridgend.
Steven Bletsoe has been mocked on social media by Labour activists who suggested he wouldn’t even retain his deposit but he did so comfortably. To get a double-figure vote share from nowhere against two party machines is a hell of an achievement and likely to be one of the best performances by an Independent candidate in Wales. Labour will need to take Independents far more seriously in next year’s local elections; they’re not going away and should be treated with a bit more respect.
Another terrible result for the Lib Dems, which is being replicated across the country. It’s worth reminding everyone that not very long ago they ran Bridgend Council.
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No shocks here. Huw Irranca-Davies was expected to win with a large majority and did. Like Bridgend, it’s one of the few seats where the Labour vote seems to have fallen back a bit but it didn’t make any difference.
Also as expected, Plaid Cymru finished in a distant second place but increased their vote share by a relatively admirable 4.5% (which is better than they’re seemingly performing elsewhere in the south).
It seems like most of the 2016 UKIP vote has gone to the Conservatives and they’ve finished a fairly strong third place.
The rest lost their deposits and there’s little to add other than pile more misery on the Lib Dems. This isn’t natural territory for them, but to finish last behind Abolish the Assembly and Propel is a humiliation. It’s turning into a pretty desperate election for them, verging on an extinction-level event.
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