Next Thursday (16th December 2021), a by-election will be held to fill the Bridgend Council vacancy in Caerau left following the death of Phil White in October.
There are local elections happening next May so why is this by-election going ahead?
A by-election usually doesn’t have to be held if a seat becomes vacant within six months of a full local election – whether that’s through death, disqualification or resignation.
Phil White sadly passed away just outside this six month cut off point. Ultimately, the law’s the law and you need to have boundaries and time limits without exceptions.
What makes this by-election particularly awkward is that whoever wins next week could potentially – if they’re not re-elected next May – have a term of under five months. So you could consider this a first round of sorts for next year’s local election.
Caerau Ward Profile
The Caerau ward lies at the very end of the Llynfi Valley, bordered by Croeserw immediately to the north in Neath Port Talbot.
Although Caerau is one of the larger wards by area in Bridgend county, nearly all of the people live in a small, highly built-up strip next to the River Llynfi. There are two main villages – Nantyfyllon in the southern end and Caerau itself in the north. The rest of the ward is mainly upland forestry areas or farms.
Like many other parts of the valleys, the population has been stable or in a natural decline. In mid-2020, the Caerau ward was estimated to be home to around 7,000 people – the same number of residents there were at the 2011 census.
Caerau is usually ranked towards the top of Welsh deprivation league tables. Most of the ward except the very southern bit of Nantyfyllon ranks poorly on most deprivation measures – income, employment, health, education, housing. There are few major employers in the ward itself aside from local services and companies based at small local industrial estates – the most well known being Talgarth Bakery.
The Caerau 1 area – which includes the post-war Tudor and Brynheulog estates – was ranked as the 5th most deprived community in the whole of Wales in 2019 and the most deprived in terms of health.
Despite this, access to services – while not great – isn’t as bad as comparable areas. Also, Caerau doesn’t rank as poorly as you would expect in terms of crime/community safety (except the aforementioned Tudor and Brynheulog estates). Most of the former mine workings have also been slowly landscaped as part of reclamation projects.
There’s a strong community spirit, demonstrated by the well-supported community organisations in the area including a popular market garden, “men’s shed” group as well as Caerau FC and Nantyfyllon RFC – the latter of which recently refurbished their community facilities.
While Welsh-speaking ability is generally higher in the Llynfi Valley than the rest of Bridgend, the proportion of Welsh-speakers in Caerau is closer to the county-wide average (about 9.5%) than Maesteg & Llangynwyd (11-14%).
Both Nantyfyllon and Caerau primary schools were ranked “yellow” in the 2020 Welsh school rankings, which means “good with some room for improvement”.
The Issues
Caerau is a community that’s been promised a lot but consistently let down by Bridgend Council and the Welsh and UK governments. At the UK level, there’s no question that Caerau will have been hit particularly hard by welfare reforms.
The obvious local issue is the continued fallout from the Arbed/home insulation scandal. The Welsh Government are still awaiting legal advice on what assistance they could provide to the affected householders, but it remains an incredibly frustrating and lengthy wait for a solution.
Another issue that points towards becoming another big letdown is the scaling back of a mine water heating project. It was hailed as yet another solution to high levels of fuel poverty in the area, with grand plans for a district heat network using geothermally-heated mine water – potentially heating hundreds of homes cheaply. As things stand, it’s going to be focused solely on Caerau Primary School.
For as long as I can remember there have been plans to build a Center Parcs-like resort on the hills to the north of Caerau. Conditional planning permission has been granted by Neath Port Talbot Council and a new delivery group has been established. As of yet, no serious funding is in place. While the holiday park would lie entirely within Neath Port Talbot, it would no doubt be an economic boost to Caerau and Maesteg if it happens at all.
In what may add to the awkwardness of this by-election, Caerau is set to lose a county councillor from next May, falling from 3 councillors to 2.
The Candidates & Outlook
The candidates are, in alphabetical order by surname:
- Chris Davies (Independent)
- Kyle Duggan (Plaid Cymru)
- Thomas Dwyer (Conservative)
- Robert Lewis (Labour)
Caerau usually elects Labour councillors – though Independents have have some success in the past, winning 2 of the 3 seats in 2004 and 2008. Despite this, Labour secured clean sweeps of all three seats in 2012 and 2017.
That’s how things are likely to go – a Labour vs Independent scrap. Realistically, they’re the only two groups who have the people on the ground to get voters out in the middle of winter.
Most people may think the Arbed issue – something the Independents have been campaigning on – could swing things away from Labour but I doubt it. It’s a big ward. The majority of people living in Caerau haven’t been affected by it. What may worry Labour more is that most people will know someone who’s been through it and what would otherwise be a very small group of angry people becomes a much bigger group.
It’ll be more a case of people asking, “Can I be bothered to vote?” followed by, “Who do I think is going to be the person least likely to let us down again?” Both the Labour candidate – Maesteg Town Councillor, Robert Lewis – and the Independent candidate – Chair of Caerau Men’s Shed, Chris Davies – have a local profile and that will count.
While Kyle Duggan finished in last place in 2017 he wasn’t that far off some of the Independent candidates. The Llynfi Valley is the closest thing Plaid Cymru has to a “natural heartland” in Bridgend though you wouldn’t expect them to win. It’s more an exercise to get names and faces out there and test the waters ahead of next year.
It’s the first time the Conservatives have stood a candidate in Caerau. Enough said. Anything other than a fairly distant last place would be a shock.
There’s also a vacancy for the Nantyfyllon ward on Maesteg Town Council. My understanding is the town council are going for a co-option, meaning the vacancy will likely be filled without a by-election.
