Bridgend Council’s wards have been redrawn. Town & community councils are being reviewed. New UK Parliament constituencies were used for the first time in July.
Now it’s the Senedd’s turn, with the Democracy and Boundary Commission having recently published its draft proposals for new Senedd constituencies.
The Senedd Elections & Members Act
At present, the Bridgend and Ogmore constituencies elect a single Senedd Member each, joined by four regional list members representing South Wales West. The Senedd as a whole has 60 elected members.
The constituency members are elected by first-past-the-post (whoever receives the most votes wins), while the list members are elected via proportional representation.
As part of the Senedd Elections & Members Act 2024, the total number of Members of the Senedd (MSs) will increase from 60 to 96 along with changes to how they’re elected.
Yes, I’ve been more than sceptical about the need for a 60% increase in MSs; you can read more at Senedd’s Future: No reform is better than bad reform and Senedd & Elections Bill: The Good, The Bad, The Missed Opportunities over at State of Wales if you’re interested.
In short, it’s been argued that increasing the number of MSs would improve levels of backbench scrutiny in Cardiff Bay and spread the workload. For example, this means MSs may only sit on one committee and give that more focus (improving scrutiny), instead of splitting their time between 2 or even 3+ committees as happens now.
Why are the Senedd constituencies being changed?
As part of the expansion, the new Westminister constituencies (more here) will be paired together to form 16 “super constituencies” for the Senedd.
Each of these new super constituencies will elect 6 MSs. For Bridgend, it means the number of MSs representing the area will increase from 6 to 12.
All MSs will be elected using proportional representation. That means the number of seats each party wins will closely match that party’s share of the vote in each constituency.
First-past-the-post will no longer be used. You won’t be able to vote for a candidate only an approved party list. MSs would be elected in the order they appear on the list.
What are the draft proposals affecting Bridgend County?
Bridgend County will be split between two proposed constituencies.
The (provisionally named) Aberafan Maesteg, Ogwr & Rhondda seat will – as the name suggests – cover the UK Parliament’s Aberafan-Maesteg and Rhondda & Ogmore constituencies.
This seat will include Pyle, North & South Cornelly, Maesteg/most of the Llynfi Valley, the Garw Valley and the Ogmore Valley.
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The second (provisionally named) seat would be Vale of Glamorgan & Bridgend which – you guessed it – covers the Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan UK Parliament seats.
This seat would include Bridgend town itself, Porthcawl, Cefn Cribwr, Pencoed & Heol-y-Cyw and the “Valleys Gateway” (Sarn, Coytrahen, Tondu, Aberkenfig, Brynmenyn, Bryncethin).
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Thoughts & Consultation Link
The Senedd could have done something more sensible and used local authorities as constituencies (which was recommended as part of the review which led to expansion), each electing different numbers of MS. I suppose the way they’ve done it saves time and ensures all constituencies are equal.
I doubt any changes will be made to the constituencies as they are other than fixing their names (which are mouthfuls).
The current five Senedd electoral regions are already big, so it’s not as if regional list MSs are unfamiliar with working in a big patch – so the size of the constituencies shouldn’t be that much of a problem.
Politically, Labour would probably be the happiest with the proposals in the Bridgend area. Under list proportional representation there’s a chance Labour could win 3 seats in the Valleys constituency on a good night.
The Tories will have a fighting chance of winning 2 seats in the Vale-Bridgend seat (depending on how Reform does). Plaid Cymru should be able to win at least one seat in each constituency too – with Plaid having a much bigger presence in Rhondda and the Barry area than they do in Bridgend.
As for the potential political losers, Independents and smaller parties like the Greens will find it much harder to win seats under the new system as they’ll need 10-15% of the vote.
Independents face a further problem in selecting candidates that have appeal across the entirety of the new constituencies, as well as possible competition between different Independents standing on separate lists.
Of the smaller parties, as things stand Reform is the only one likely to win a significant number of seats – but the next Senedd election is still the best part of 18 months away and anything can happen.
All of the consultation information is available here. It’s open until 30th September 2024.
