In this first of three ward-by-ward previews, I focus on the Ogmore, Garw and Llynfi Valleys as well as the Sarn/Aberkenfig/Bryncethin area (in council-speak called “The Valleys Gateway”).
There’s a widget you can use below (also on the home page) from the Democracy Club if you’re unsure which ward you’re in – particularly following boundary changes. Just put in your postcode and it’ll give you a list of candidates.
Which county councillors are standing down this year?
- Sorrel Dendy (Ind, Blaengarw) – will still be running for Garw Community Council.
- Keith Edwards (Ind, Maesteg East) – has already been returned to Maesteg Town Council.
- Gareth Howells (Lab, Caerau)
- Mary Hughes (Ind, Nantymoel)
- Altaf Hussain (Con, Penyfai) – elected as MS for South Wales West in 2021.
- David Lewis (Lab, Sarn)
- Janice Lewis (Lab, Bryncoch)
- James Radcliffe (Plaid, Aberkenfig)
- Rod Shaw (Ind, Pontycymer)
- Roz Stirman (Ind, Llangeinor)
Sitting councillors seeking re-election are in italics. Candidates are listed in alphabetical order by party and then surname.
Aberkenfig (elects 1 councillor)
- Electoral History: 1 Independent (1999, 2004, 2008, 2012); 1 Plaid Cymru (2017).
Candidates
- Independent: Sara Thomas.
- Labour: Janet Webber.
- Plaid Cymru: Ellie Richards.
This was a surprise gain for Plaid Cymru in 2017 when James Radcliffe – who’s standing down after a single term – finished just 11 votes ahead of Labour.
Given the numbers are likely to be very tight for a council majority, it’s the sort of seat Labour need to win – demonstrated by a recent personal visit by the First Minister. Plaid Cymru will find it difficult to hang on because James Radcliffe seemingly struggled to build up a profile. As Plaid rarely benefits from the sort of generational voting in the area that Labour gets, their councillors and candidates often have to work three times as hard to get name and face recognition. Despite their current efforts, it may be too late.
Sara Thomas will stand on her own merits, but it helps that her husband Tim Thomas – who won neighbouring Ynysawdre for Plaid Cymru in 2017; now an Independent – has been very proactive and given people in Aberkenfig a taste of the kind of graft they could expect from both of them if they went back to the Independents.
Caerau (elects 2 councillors)
- Electoral History: 2 Labour (1995); 3 Labour (1999); 2 Independent, 1 Labour (2004, 2008); 3 Labour (2012, 2017); 2 Labour, 1 Independent (2021 by-election).
Candidates
- Conservative: Michael Day, Lee Williams.
- Independent: Chris Davies, Matthew Rowlands.
- Labour: Paul Davies, Robert Lewis.
- Plaid Cymru: Kyle Duggan.
Everything I said during last year’s by-election applies now. I said the by-election was a “first round”.
The major development since then has been the announcement of a funding agreement between the Welsh Government and Bridgend Council to repair properties damaged under the insulation scandal. There still seems to be a lot of anger about it and while voters may be told by Labour to send a message to the UK Government, they may equally want to send a message to Labour in Bridgend Council too.
Given he’s only been in office for six months or so, it would be harsh if Chris Davies ended up losing his seat so soon – but that’s the nature of politics and Labour has long performed strongly in Caerau if not completely having it their own way.
The reduction in the number of councillors means the Independents probably have to finish top one way or another and the last time they did that was in 2008.
I would be inclined towards the two incumbents keeping their seats, but it could be tight.
Penyfai (elects 1 councillor)
- Electoral History: 1 Lib Dem (1999, 2004); 1 Independent (2008); 1 Labour (2012); 1 Conservative (2017).
Candidates
- Conservative: Corey Edwards.
- Greens: Justine Jenkins.
- Independent: Neil Hoskins.
- Labour: Heidi Bennett.
- Plaid Cymru: Iolo Caudy.
In a similar position to Aberkenfig and another seat Labour would hope to pick up.
Only Meryl Wilkins has managed to retain her seat since BCBC was founded. In the elections since then, it’s changed hands and the favourite here might be Heidi Bennett, who came within 50 votes of winning in 2017.
Penyfai is one of Bridgend’s well-to-do wards and that may be behind the shift to the Tories last time around. I doubt there are many properties in the village lower than Bands D and E for council tax – which the Tories are pledging to keep down.
The unknown factor is the Independent candidate. Penyfai has backed Independents in the past, though it could split the “anyone-but-Labour” vote if the Conservatives also perform strongly.
St Bride’s Minor & Ynysawdre (elects 3 councillors)
- Electoral History: New ward.
Candidates
- Conservative: Michelle Crackett, Linda Edger, Carley Winter.
- Independent: Mark John, Leanne Teahan-Dyer, Tim Thomas.
- Labour: Paula Ford, Mark Galvin, Gary Thomas.
A new multi-member ward made up of the former Sarn, Bryncoch, Bryncethin and Ynysawdre wards and one set to be keenly contested between Labour and Independents.
As mentioned earlier, Tim Thomas has been one of the more proactive councillors of the 2017 intake and has worked hard to build up a profile locally. The challenge facing him is that Labour dominates the new ward as a whole and while he may pick up a majority of votes in the old Ynysawdre ward, there’s no guarantee it may happen in Sarn or Bryncethin. If, however, his reputation precedes him then he ought to be re-elected without any problems.
You would expect Gary Thomas to be the most likely of the Labour candidates to be re-elected given his length of service, so he’ll be known locally.
Assuming Labour and the Indys win at least one seat each, that third seat will be up for grabs and where it goes will help determine how good or bad Labour’s election could be.
The St Bride’s Minor & Ynysawdre ward is taking part in a Welsh Government voting pilot. All electors in the ward will be able to vote early at polling stations on Tuesday 3rd May and Wednesday 4th May (as well as the usual Thursday election day).
